Global PV Customs Data Analysis Report
Uncover country-level insights and supply chain dynamics across six key markets.
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| Author | Jenny Lin |
| Updated | May 28, 2025 |
Among Latin America’s PV markets, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Argentina serve as the region’s core drivers, with Brazil leading the way. According to InfoLink’s forecast, Latin America’s total PV demand will reach 25.7–31.6 GWdc in 2025 and further grow to 46.7–54.8 GWdc by 2030, an increase of 73–82% from 2025. This highlights Latin America’s significant growth potential in the global PV market. However, grid capacity, policy continuity, and financing conditions remain key factors influencing the region’s market development.
Brazil: Market resilience tested by subsidy phase-outs and rising costs
As the largest PV market in Latin America, Brazil’s new PV demand is expected to reach 14.5–16.5 GWdc in 2025, making up about half of the region’s total. Looking ahead to the mid to long term, demand may grow to 17–20 GWdc by 2030. Brazil faces multiple structural challenges despite the demand growth, including phase-out of policy incentives, rising import costs, and grid bottlenecks.
The discount on the tariff for the use of transmission systems (Tarifa de Uso do Sistema de Transmissão, TUST) for ground-mounted projects has been gradually phased out since March 2022, weakening the momentum of new development. Meanwhile, Law 14.300, which took effect in 2023, established a new electricity framework for distributed projects below 5 MW. Although the law initially sparked an installation rush, its sunset clause limiting installation deadlines have raised concerns about a sharp slowdown in demand after 2024.
Beyond tightening policies, the cost pressure has intensified. Brazil reinstated tariffs on imported PV modules at the end of 2023 and raised the tariff rate from 10.8% to 25% in November 2024. Coupled with reduced export tax rebates from China, import prices have risen. These changes directly squeeze developers’ profits, especially impacting distributed PV projects such as those by smaller enterprises and residential users, who are more sensitive to cost fluctuations. Rising investment costs may lead to project delays or cancellations. Against this backdrop, Brazil’s overall module demand in 2025 may see its first decline in recent years.
Mexico: Policy shifts spur demand, growth momentum poised to return
Following the inauguration of President Claudia Sheinbaum in October 2024, Mexico’s PV market has benefited from favorable policies. The Ministry of Energy (Secretaría de Energía, SENER) and the Energy Efficiency Trust Fund (Fideicomiso para el Ahorro de Energía Eléctrica, FIDE) launched a residential PV subsidy program in early 2025, offering subsidies and low-interest loans for 5–8 kWp systems targeted at households with high electricity costs. This initiative is expected to boost demand for distributed PV installations.
Beyond policy incentives for residential PV, the government also outlined clear expansion plans for ground-mounted projects. In February 2025, the Presidential Office issued the National Electric System Strengthening and Expansion Plan 2025-2030, aiming to add over 13 GW of generation capacity within six years, with PV accounting for 4.7 GW. These projects are set to be gradually grid-connected in 2027 and 2028.
Benefiting from policy incentives, Mexico’s PV demand in 2025 is likely to rise to 2.5–3 GWdc. In the long term, if key policies and funding support remain in place, PV demand may reach 3.5–4 GWdc by 2030, helping Mexico secure its position as a strong Tier-2 market within Latin America.
Chile: Energy storage becomes key as distributed and utility-scale projects advance in parallel
As Latin America's third-largest solar PV market, Chile had a total installed capacity of 35.6 GWac as of April 2025, with solar accounting for 11 GWac and continuing to grow each year. Solar demand is expected to increase by 2–2.5 GWdc in 2025 and reach 3.3–4.5 GWdc by 2030. Overall, the market is set to grow steadily but conservatively.
Chile’s solar expansion was largely driven by the Small Distributed Generation Means (Pequeños Medios de Generación Distribuida, PMGD) program launched in 2014, which guaranteed fixed rates for distributed projects under 9 MW. This attracted strong investment and encouraged a shift from large desert-based solar farms to distributed systems. However, the policy has been in place for many years and lacks new incentives. In addition, the passage of Law No. 21,667 in 2024, which extends residential electricity subsidies through 2027, may reduce the financial appeal of installing solar PV, leading to a more cautious market outlook.
Chile still faces major challenges with power transmission. The Atacama Desert in the north has great solar potential for utility-scale projects, but poor grid infrastructure makes it hard to deliver electricity to central and southern cities. This causes serious problems of energy waste and negative electricity prices. To address these issues, the government plans to invest USD 2 billion in utility-scale energy storage systems, with operations scheduled to start in 2026. In the long term, improvements in storage and transmission capabilities will be essential for solar growth.
Colombia: Policy incentives unlock solar market potential
In recent years, Colombia has seen growing solar demand as the government promotes energy transition through policies. Laws such as the Energy Transition Law (Law 2099 of 2021) and the National Development Plan (Law 2294 of 2023) offer strong tax incentives for Non-Conventional Renewable Energy (NCRE) projects, including a 50% income tax deduction within 15 years, accelerated depreciation, and exemptions from import tariffs and value-added tax (VAT).
Ground-mounted projects: In 2024, the Colombian government launched an energy auction and allocated 4.4 GWac of solar capacity.
Distributed projects: In April 2025, the Regulatory Commission of Energy and Gas (Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas, CREG) passed Resolution No. 101072, allowing the creation of energy communities to promote distributed systems of collective generation, aiming to add at least 1 GW of renewable energy capacity.
Solar demand in 2025 is expected to grow to 1.7–2 GWdc. In addition, in May 2025, the Minister of Mines and Energy stated that the government is considering exempting certain renewable energy projects from environmental permit requirements to accelerate investment and reduce administrative delays. Long-term demand is expected to grow steadily, reaching 2.5–3.5 GWdc by 2030.
Argentina: MATER scheme drives market amid forex and financing risks
Argentina’s PV market is still in its early stages, with newly added PV demand in 2025 estimated at around 0.6–1 GWdc. With the support of policy incentives and market mechanisms, however, demand is expected to grow to 1.85–2 GWdc by 2030, more than doubling over the five-year period. The key driver is the Renewable Energy Term Market (Mercado a Término de Energías Renovables, MATER) scheme, introduced in 2017, which allows private companies and developers to sign long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), effectively promoting non-state-owned power generation and corporate procurement of green electricity.
Nonetheless, market growth continues to face major challenges, including sharp exchange rate fluctuations, foreign currency access restrictions, and uncertainty surrounding the customs clearance of imported equipment, leading to prolonged project financing and implementation timelines. The country’s import processes were streamlined at the end of 2023 through the abolition of the two previous import license systems—the Import System of the Argentine Republic (Sistema de Importaciones de la República Argentina, SIRA) and the Import System of the Argentine Republic for Services (Sistema de Importaciones de la República Argentina para Servicios, SIRASE)—and their replacement with the simplified Statistical System of Import Operations (Sistema Estadístico de Importaciones, SEDI). In addition, certain renewable energy equipment has been exempted from the foreign exchange tax—Tax for an Inclusive and Solidary Argentina (Impuesto Para una Argentina Inclusiva y Solidaria, PAIS).
Actual import procedures, however, continue to be hindered by foreign currency shortages and customs delays, limiting Argentina’s growth potential in the short term. Still, if financial and trade barriers are eased, the MATER scheme could further unlock corporate market potential and lay the foundation for medium- to long-term development.
Infrastructure and policy execution will shape the next wave of solar PV growth in Latin America
Latin America’s PV markets are transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a period of adjustment and steady development. While some countries are currently facing pressures such as policy shifts, cooling demand, and lagging grid infrastructure, overall market visibility remains relatively strong, given the large pipeline of projects yet to be built across the region.
Against the backdrop of simultaneous growth in energy transition and power demand, key enablers for unlocking latent market potential include infrastructure upgrades, energy storage deployment, and deeper regional cooperation. If policy frameworks are further optimized, approval processes streamlined, and financing mechanisms improved, the Latin American market could experience another significant wave of growth.
