Polysilicon prices stagnate while module demand weakens

Polysilicon

Market sentiment is increasingly intense in the polysilicon sector. Another round of negotiation and order placement should have taken place as most manufacturers, including leading ones, had finished delivering previous orders. However, there are only few new orders amid the ongoing buyer-seller standoff as of this Wednesday.

Manufacturers have been offering tentative price quotes for new orders since last week, with Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, including new players, slashing their quotes significantly. However, these quotes are still unacceptable for buyers, given decreasing utilization rates of the ingot segment and faster wafer price declines. This week only sees sporadic deals, and exceptionally fierce negotiations are likely in the first half of November.

Prices listed this week mainly reflect the price ranges and decreases of unfinished orders covering from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday. Latest trading prices will not be discernible immediately, with potentially notable declines.
 

Wafer

Given the ongoing inventory issue, wafer prices plummet. The market is pessimistic, with manufacturers at their wit’s end to secure shipments. This week, trading prices plunge to RMB 2.55-2.6/piece and RMB 3.45/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. For n-type M10 wafers, prices sit at RMB 2.6/piece. N-type G12 wafer prices fall correspondingly, with full-n-type G12 wafer prices dropping to around RMB 3.5/piece. Additionally, the low-price range for M10 wafers widens this week due to bundle sales and discounts of some manufacturers, reaching RMB 2.3/piece and RMB 2.4/piece for p-type and n-type ones, respectively.

Wafer manufacturers hold varying attitudes toward future price trends. While Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers strive to deplete inventory by lowering prices, some manufacturers take the risk of holding high inventory, sustaining wafer prices to control profit levels and prepare for demand revival hereafter.

For the wafer sector, the biggest risk lies in cell production plans. Currently, wafer inventory piles up even with the cell sector running at full capacity and utilization rates being cut to 80% or below. In the future, if cell manufacturers cut production in response to price plummets, wafer manufacturers will curtail production at higher rates.
 

Cell

This week, cell inventory level keeps rising to equal around a week of production. Trading prices plunge accordingly.

Cell prices slump 15-18% from last week’s level to RMB 0.5-0.53/W and RMB 0.52-053/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells, respectively. Trading prices vary more widely, with many manufacturers starting outsourcing services to keep production lines operating.

For n-type cells, M10 TOPCon cell prices decline by 14% to RMB 0.55-0.56/W. N-type cell prices are RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than p-type ones. G12 HJT cells, mostly for in-house use and less for external sales, see prices come in at RMB 0.75/W.

Against the backdrop of falling cell prices, manufacturers see OEM order volume shrinking amid waning end-user demand, even though some of them dedicate more capacities to OEM businesses. Recently, cell manufacturers are poised to cut production. Future price trend hinges on changes in utilization rates.
 

Module

With the installation deadline looming at the end of October, module makers expect prices to continue declining in November. Prices listed this week start reflecting prices of new orders, approaching RMB 1.1/W. More Tier-1 manufacturers deliver at RMB 1.05-1.07/W.

There are 51-52 GW of module production planned in October. Production plans in November are subject to the anticipation of further module price drops across the supply chain and the weaker-than-expected demand. From a BOM supplier’s point of view, the amount of purchases has been decreasing. Still, production cuts are not official yet. If module makers do reduce production, the overall production plan in November will be close to that in October.  

Whether prices will stabilize depends on module production plans and inventory levels. If production plans increase as new capacity comes online, manufacturers are likely to cut prices deeper to vie for orders. Average prices for PERC modules may reach below RMB 1.1/W, with the low-price range dipping below RMB 1/W.

Average prices for glass-backsheet modules fall to RMB 1.1-1.13/W this week. Tier-1 module makers keep taking new orders at lower prices, which come in at RMB 1.05-1.1/W. Some Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers sustain average prices at RMB 1.1-1.13/W, with current price level being very close to the break-even point.

In November, Chinese exporters will deliver products at USD 0.12-0.135/W (FOB) overseas. In Asia-Pacific, module makers will deliver at USD 0.12-0.13/W. In India, prices for local modules will average at USD 0.2-0.24/W. In Europe, spot prices begin to level off at EUR 0.11-0.135/W. Non-China demand has begun shifting as fewer module makers offer price quotes for PERC modules for the second half of next year.

As demand switches from PERC products, prices for TOPCon n-type modules come in at RMB 1.08-1.23/W, with a premium of USD 0.007-0.008/W against PERC ones in non-China markets.

For HJT modules, prices are little changed, sitting at RMB 1.3-1.45/W in China and RMB 1.3-1.35/W for low-efficiency ones.