Wafer quote divergence persists; cell prices slip again

Polysilicon

A few small-scale orders have been fulfilled and delivered recently, but weak downstream demand continues to ripple through the upstream segment. Transactions this week are mainly driven by Tier-1 makers and previous contracts from some Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers. Lower-end prices have eased slightly this week, primarily among Tier-2 and Tier-3 producers, with recycled mono-grade polysilicon trading at RMB 47–50/kg. Tier-1 leading manufacturers have held recycled mono-grade polysilicon prices firm at RMB 51–53/kg, while some small-volume spot deals are still concluded at RMB 55/kg.

Overall transaction activity has remained subdued this week. Same as last week, most manufacturers are maintaining a wait-and-see stance amid policy uncertainty, and inventories are still trending upward. Downstream weakness continues to put mild pressure on the lower-end price range.

Overall average prices this week: 

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-55/kg 

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 47-52/kg 

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to secure more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period, leading to a modest uptick in September orders. However, uncertainties on the demand side continue to cap price hikes, making significant gains unlikely.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with recent news generally viewed as supportive. However, as the policy framework remains under review and detailed guidelines are yet to be released, its short-term impact on price recovery appears limited.

For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-market demand. With rising costs in other materials adding pressure, downstream players are increasingly unable to absorb higher polysilicon prices. Accordingly, polysilicon prices are set to hold steady in November, with further rises unlikely.
 

Wafer

Wafer transaction prices have seen substantial declines amid divergence this week, with actual deals approaching lower-end prices.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Prices come in at RMB 1.33–1.35/piece, with the mainstream average at RMB 1.35/piece. Some manufacturers have offered discounts down to RMB 1.33/piece for large-volume orders or to boost shipments.

•    210RN: Market slump has resulted in mixed transaction prices. While Tier-1 makers are holding quotes at RMB 1.35/piece, low-priced transactions have dropped to RMB 1.30–1.33/piece amid sluggish demand and low trading volume.

•    210N: Although leading manufacturers have sustained firm pricing strategies, waning demand for China’s ground-mounted projects have pushed prices slightly down to RMB 1.65–1.68/piece this week.

Most wafer producers have started adjusting their production structures in November, with overall utilization rates expected to decline noticeably from October. While inventories remain manageable, persistent buyer caution has slowed shipment activity. Low-priced transactions this week suggests that the mainstream average may edge down next week. However, strong upstream polysilicon costs and the upcoming industry meeting are expected to limit the likelihood of significant short-term price swings.
 

Cell in China

N-type cell prices have all declined this week: 

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.305/W (down)

•    Price range: RMB 0.3-0.31/W

210RN: 

•    Average price: RMB 00.28/W (down)

•    Price range: RMB 0.28-0.285/W 

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.30/W (down)

•    Price range: RMB 0.30-0.305/W

N-type cells by format:

•    183N: Prices continue to decline this week, as short-term procurement ahead of India’s Approved List of Cell Manufacturers (ALCM) implementation in June 2026 has been largely exhausted. With Southeast Asian cells exempt from India’s Basic Customs duty (BCD) and upcoming anti-dumping duties on China, Indian buyers are increasingly sourcing from Southeast Asia, further weakening demand for Chinese cells.

•    210RN: Low-priced cells at RMB 0.28/W from last week are widely delivered this week. With a high production share and mounting inventories, transactions at RMB 0.285/W remain sluggish.

•    210N: Demand in China has continued to decline since November, indicating potential further price easing.
 

Cell in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD: 

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

•    As mentioned last week, recent export volumes have sharply declined due to U.S. tariffs.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

•    The average export price for 183N cells from China has slipped to USD 0.041/W this week.

•    Indian module manufacturers have increasingly shifted to sourcing cells from Southeast Asia, weakening demand for Chinese cells and driving down China’s export prices.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.  

With the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell makers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct cell shipments to the U.S. have dropped significantly.

The preliminary countervailing duty ruling, initially scheduled for October, has been postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown. InfoLink will continue to monitor U.S. policy developments and evaluate their potential impact on cell prices.
 

Module in China

The market has remained largely unchanged recently. Module prices hold steady this week due to rising costs of cells, raw materials, and BOMs. Ground-mounted market has been primarily driven by deliveries under previously signed contracts, while visibility for new orders has remained limited. Recent market focus has shifted to the industry association’s price cap policy and the progress of the proposed polysilicon stockpiling plan, both of which are still underway.

TOPCon module prices in China: 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Outlook for Q4: 

Demand has started to ease in October, and some manufacturers have reported lower-than-expected order volumes. Module prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of October as China’s domestic demand gradually declines. 

As demand drops further in the year-end, market focus is expected to shift toward order signing and production plans for 1Q26, with some manufacturers likely to adjust production schedules in advance to align with the demand cycle for 2026.
 

Module in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects remain at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.