210RN wafer demand weakens; 183N cell price slips

Polysilicon

Downstream ingot manufacturers continue to hold sufficient inventories to sustain production, with only a few new orders and deliveries recorded in recent days. A small number of manufacturers have been restocking, with new transaction prices at RMB 52–53/kg.

Tier-1 makers have held transaction levels above RMB 53/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon and have refrained from signing new deals below this threshold. As in the previous week, most suppliers remain in a wait-and-see stance regarding future policy direction.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 53–55/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 50–53/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). 

The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to secure more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period, leading to a modest uptick in September orders. However, uncertainties on the demand side continue to cap price hikes, making significant gains unlikely.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with recent news generally viewed as supportive. However, as the policy framework remains under review and detailed guidelines are yet to be released, its short-term impact on price recovery appears limited.

For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-market demand. With rising costs in other materials also adding pressure, downstream players are increasingly unable to absorb higher polysilicon prices.

Accordingly, polysilicon prices are expected to hold steady in November, with further rises unlikely.
 

Wafer

After several weeks of price stability, some wafer formats have showed signs of slipping this week, especially the 210RN ones. While mainstream transaction averages remain roughly flat compared to last week, some manufacturers have begun testing shipment at lower prices amid weak buying sentiment and mounting sales pressure.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Short-term cell demand from India continues to provide support. However, the implementation of the new minimum import price (MIP) policy in Türkiye (Turkey) and China’s domestic demand shift toward 210N wafers have weakened price support. Some transactions have been recorded below RMB 1.35/piece.

•    210RN: Most cell makers are still working through existing inventories, leading to weak procurement and a sharp decline in trading volume. Transaction prices from Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers have fallen to RMB 1.35/piece, while Tier-1's have been firm at RMB 1.40/piece. All tiers face sluggish demand and ongoing inventory pressure; prices have started to slip, with some deals reportedly below RMB 1.35/piece, even reaching as low as RMB 1.33/piece.

•    210N: The most stable among all formats, supported by steady procurement from Chinese ground-mounted projects, with active trading and mainstream prices flat at RMB 1.70/piece.

Overall, while recent price guidance released by industry associations has led some manufacturers to adopt short-term price-support expectations, Q4 demand remains unclear, and wafer inventories continue to edge higher. In the near term, wafer prices are expected to remain flat to slightly weak, with market sentiment staying largely cautious.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.315/W

•    Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W

210RN:

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W

210N:

•    Average price: RMB 0.31/W

•    Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W

Despite support from short-term demand in India, 183N cell prices have slipped this week. Policy effects have yet to fully take hold, while low-priced orders by some Chinese exporters further weighed on overall prices. With Southeast Asian origins exempt from India’s basic import tariffs, part of the demand has already shifted toward those suppliers.

Quotes for 210RN cells remain divergent, with few leading manufacturers holding at RMB 0.29/W and most second- and third-tier suppliers offering RMB 0.285/W. As oversupply persists, further price declines are likely, potentially driving wafer prices lower as well.

Demand for 210N cells remains supported by China’s ground-mounted projects. However, the higher price of RMB 0.32/W has seen limited acceptance from module makers, keeping the average price stuck at RMB 0.31/W. Overall, prices remain stable.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    P-type cell demand primarily stems from India.

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China stays at USD 0.042/W this week.

China’s price declines have yet to result in bulk deliveries. While policy factors may support India’s 183N cell demand through year-end, low-priced orders in China and a shift by Indian module makers toward Southeast Asian cell suppliers have kept China’s export prices largely unchanged.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week. 

Notably, with the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell manufacturers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct shipments to the U.S. have declined, and further price reductions for U.S.-bound cells remain possible.
 

Module prices in China

Following China’s National Day holiday, the overall market has remained largely unchanged. Module prices remain steady due to rising costs of cells, raw materials, and BOMs.

Ground-mounted market has been primarily driven by deliveries under previously signed contracts, while visibility for new orders has remained limited.

Prices for distributed projects have held steady, supported by pre-holiday stocking activity, C&I, and self-consumption project deliveries. A small number of high-priced orders are still being placed.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Utility-scale projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Outlook for Q4:

Demand has started to ease in October, and some manufacturers have reported lower-than-expected order volumes. Module prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of October as China’s domestic demand gradually declines.

As demand drops further in the year-end, market focus is expected to shift toward order signing and production planning for 1Q26, with some manufacturers likely to begin adjusting production schedules in advance to align with the demand cycle for 2026.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for next year’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects remain at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.