| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | October 29, 2025 |
Polysilicon
Only a few orders have been delivered recently, but weak downstream demand has started to weigh on the upstream segment. This week, some manufacturers have focused on deliveries mixed with special specifications, with prices falling to RMB 49–50/kg and showing slight softness. Leading suppliers have maintained recycled mono-grade polysilicon offers above RMB 53/kg and refrained from selling below this level, resulting in limited deliveries this week. Most manufacturers remain cautious, awaiting policy development, while inventories continue to rise.
Overall average prices this week:
• Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 53–55/kg
• Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49-52/kg
• Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg
While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to secure more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period, leading to a modest uptick in September orders. However, uncertainties on the demand side continue to cap price hikes, making significant gains unlikely.
In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, with recent news generally viewed as supportive. However, as the policy framework remains under review and detailed guidelines are yet to be released, its short-term impact on price recovery appears limited.
For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-market demand. With rising costs in other materials also adding pressure, downstream players are increasingly unable to absorb higher polysilicon prices. Accordingly, polysilicon prices are expected to hold steady in November, with further rises unlikely.
Wafer
The wafer market has remained stable overall this week, though some sizes—particularly 210RN—show signs of slipping. 210RN prices decline further amid mixed transaction activity and evident buyer hesitation.
By wafer format:
• 183N: Mainstream prices hold at RMB 1.35/piece. Although demand has shown slight signs of weakening, prices stay resilient with stable transaction levels.
• 210RN: High wafer inventories at cell manufacturers have constrained procurement momentum. While a few transactions are concluded at RMB 1.40/piece, most orders are trading at RMB 1.30–1.35/piece, with limited shipment volumes. Tier-1 producers maintain firm offers at RMB 1.40/piece. Notably, 210RN wafer prices vary by diagonal size, with 272 mm products trading at RMB 1.33–1.35/piece and 276 mm at RMB 1.35–1.40/piece, reflecting a segmented market. As buyer acceptance for RMB 1.40 remains limited, some manufacturers offer discounted shipments at RMB 1.38/piece.
• 210N: Supported by steady demand from China’s ground-mounted projects, prices have remained stable, with mainstream transactions steady at RMB 1.70/piece, the most stable format this week.
Recent industry meetings have fueled short-term price hike expectations among some manufacturers, though overall sentiment remains cautious. With end demand still uncertain and cell prices showing signs of pullback, wafer prices may face mild downward pressure. However, with wafer production expected to decline in November compared with October, supply-side adjustments could provide some support, limiting price fluctuations in the coming week.
Cell prices in China
N-type cell prices this week:
183N:
• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (down)
• Price range: RMB 0.31-0.315/W
210RN:
• Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat)
• Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W
210N:
• Average price: RMB 0.31/W (flat)
• Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W
N-type cells by format:
• 183N: In line with last week’s trend, demand has been sustained primarily by the Indian market. However, prices continue to edge down as some Chinese manufacturers engage in low-price competition and some India’s demand shifts to Southeast Asian cell producers, weighing on overall price stability.
• 210RN: Despite steady average prices this week, short-term demand and transaction volumes remain weak. Prices are likely to continue slipping, potentially dragging wafer prices lower as well. Larger-volume orders are now being quoted at around RMB 0.28/W.
• 210N: Cell demand has also started to decrease, with quotes also slipping. Module makers are actively cutting prices, and some cell makers have offered quotes at RMB 0.305/W, indicating that the overall decline in demand for November is becoming increasingly evident.
Cell prices in non-China markets
P-type cell prices in USD:
• The average export price for 182P cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week.
• Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.
• Recent export volumes have sharply declined due to U.S. tariffs.
N-type cell prices in USD:
• The average export price for 183N cells from China stays at USD 0.042/W this week.
• Previously contracted high-priced orders are still being delivered, but with low-price competition continuing and Indian module makers increasingly shifting procurement to Southeast Asian cell suppliers, China’s export prices have remained largely unchanged.
For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices stand at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
With the release of preliminary AD/CVD rates on Indonesia and Laos approaching and reciprocal tariff measures in effect, many cell makers in these countries have shifted exports toward India. Direct cell shipments to the U.S. have dropped significantly.
Module prices in China
Recent market has remained largely unchanged. Module prices hold steady this week due to rising costs of cells, raw materials, and BOMs.
Ground-mounted market has been primarily driven by deliveries under previously signed contracts, while visibility for new orders has remained limited.
Notably, despite fewer new tenders from state-owned companies, some ground-mounted projects that opened bidding in October have shown slightly higher preliminary bid prices.
In the distributed market, project prices have remained stable.
TOPCon module prices in China:
• Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W
• Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W
It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700+ W high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.
Outlook for Q4:
Demand has started to ease in October, and some manufacturers have reported lower-than-expected order volumes. Module prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of October as China’s domestic demand gradually declines.
As demand drops further in the year-end, market focus is expected to shift toward order signing and production plans for 1Q26, with some manufacturers likely to adjust production schedules in advance to align with the demand cycle for 2026.
Module prices in non-China markets
Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.
Module prices by region:
• Asia-Pacific:
1. Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.
2. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.
3. Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.
• Europe:
Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.
• Latin America:
Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.
• Middle East:
Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.
• U.S.:
Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects remain at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.
Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.
