Wafer and cell prices climb again, lifting expectations for module price increases

Polysilicon

No transactions have been concluded at new prices this week, and several leading producers have adopted a wait-and-see approach and suspended quotes. Preliminary indications suggest that quoted prices may have room to rise above RMB 65/kg, with suppliers still assessing downstream acceptance. Recent deliveries continue to be driven by the execution of earlier orders. While a limited number of new orders are being quoted at higher levels, there has been no confirmation of transactions concluded above RMB 60/kg.

Overall average prices this week: 

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 53–55/kg 

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 48-51/kg 

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg 

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, inventory and spot order prices come in at USD 15–16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady, while spot prices have shown signs of rising as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks. Nonetheless, purchasing conditions for U.S.-produced polysilicon remain stringent, and some orders under discussion have yet to be finalized.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts. 

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1. 
 

Wafer

Extending last week’s relatively strong price momentum, wafer manufacturers began rolling out price increases last Thursday, with the broader market maintaining a firm pricing tone. However, as most suppliers had already formed clear expectations of price hikes last week and downstream customers had advanced part of their procurement accordingly, actual transaction activity on newly quoted prices this week has remained subdued, with traded volumes still limited. Most market participants are inclined to wait until after the New Year holiday to reassess conditions. Aside from rigid restocking needs or dual-distributor arrangements, order-taking appetite remains generally weak.

By wafer format:

•    183N: A new round of quotes has generally been raised to RMB 1.40/piece since last Thursday. However, actual transaction volumes remain relatively limited, with some suppliers still offering concessionary deals at RMB 1.38/piece during negotiations.

•    210RN: Mainstream quotes have been adjusted up in tandem to RMB 1.50/piece, while transaction prices as low as RMB 1.48/piece have been observed at some individual suppliers.

•    210N: Quoted prices have moved up to RMB 1.70/piece since last Thursday, marking a clear increase compared with levels prior to last Wednesday, with sporadic transactions already emerging.

Overall, the market currently exhibits a clear pattern of quoted prices without matching transaction volumes. New price quotes have yet to result in bulk transactions, and actual shipment performance has not matched the strength suggested by pricing levels. However, average prices are still calculated based on current market quotes combined with limited actual transactions, reflecting an ongoing upward shift in the price center of gravity.

From a supply–demand perspective, wafer producers implemented relatively sizable production cuts in December, and a modest rebound in total scheduled production in January cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, destocking progress has been evident recently, with most suppliers having shipped adequate volumes last week. This is also partly why newly quoted prices have yet to translate into rapid volume uptake this week. Currently, actual transactions remain mainly driven by continued procurement through certain dual-distributor channels, while direct procurement activity remains subdued. With seasonally weak demand in Q1, the pace of shipments going forward still warrants close observation.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week are as follows: 

•    183N:   

Average price: RMB 0.38/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.37–0.40/W 

•    210RN:   

Average price: RMB 0.38/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.36–0.40/W 

•    210N:   

Average price: RMB 0.38/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0. 37–0.40/W

Following last week’s continued price hikes across all formats, transaction prices among cell manufacturers have diverged this week. Tier-1 suppliers have largely been able to secure prices above RMB 0.38/W, with limited transactions observed at quoted levels of RMB 0.39–0.40/W and above. In contrast, shipment volumes from Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers have remained relatively subdued, with delivered prices still generally concentrated in the range of RMB 0.36–0.38/W.

In line with last week, driven by industry self-regulation initiatives, upstream price hikes, and cost pressure from surging silver prices, cell manufacturers have been actively lifting price levels across the board above production cost lines. However, it is worth noting that pricing stances across the cell and module segments continues to diverge. Module makers’ willingness to procure externally sourced cells has weakened markedly since last week, and large-scale production cuts within China’s cell segment have already been confirmed for January.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

Driven by rising silver cost pressure, the average export price for 182P cells has increased to USD 0.047/W this week. In China, delivery prices have risen to approximately RMB 0.36/W. Higher-end pricing has largely been sustained by cells produced using non-China polysilicon and exported directly from Southeast Asia to the U.S. Shipment volumes of such products have already become relatively limited, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has increased to USD 0.050/W this week. Export-oriented manufacturers in China are generally shipping at RMB 0.38/W, although deliveries of some earlier lower-priced orders are still ongoing. Meanwhile, higher-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-China polysilicon and exported to the U.S. are quoted at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the weekly average holding at USD 0.11/W.
 

Module in China

Leading module makers have broadly responded to industry self-regulation initiatives and gradually begun to raise module quotes. As price-hike signals have become clearer, transactions in the distributed generation (DG) channel have moved up first. 

Meanwhile, the rapid rise in silver prices has placed significant cost pressure on the cell segment, further reinforcing price-increase expectations across the supply chain. Toward year-end, pricing in the module segment has also begun to reflect rising silver cost pressure, with quoted prices moving higher across both TOPCon and BC modules. Following last week’s increase in publicly announced TOPCon module prices, this week has also seen BC module delivery prices adjust upward, with increases of around RMB 0.02–0.03/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has continued to soften as the year draws to a close. In China, execution volumes of orders on hand have gradually declined, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. Non-China markets have likewise slowed procurement momentum as the year-end approaches. Looking ahead to early next year, against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.

TOPCon module prices in China: 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.71/W

In the HJT segment, average transaction prices have been revised again this week, rising to RMB 0.76/W, corresponding to mainstream HJT module power ratings of 720–725 W. Higher-power 730–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.78-0.84/W.
 

Module in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific are mostly at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    In Australia, modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W.

3.    In India, non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Overall prices have remained unchanged at USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. Rumor has it that late 2025 may see changes.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W, while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms, and companies have begun engaging testing agencies and law firms to prepare compliance documentation.