Silver prices reach new highs, while wafer transaction prices trend lower

Polysilicon

No large-scale polysilicon deals have been concluded this week, as most market participants await further news. Coupled with the current off-season for demand, spot prices have softened to RMB 47–50/kg. Some small- and medium-sized producers hold prices near the lower end, while leading manufacturers continue to maintain elevated quotes and show limited willingness to cut.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 48-51/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

Batch signings of orders have been delayed under the influence of recent news flow.

Although polysilicon producers continue to push price quotes at elevated levels of RMB 63–65/kg, downstream acceptance has weakened. Most wafer manufacturers have recently adopted a wait-and-see stance, suspending procurement, with some expecting prices to retreat to RMB 43-45/kg. Ultimately, the pass-through of price increases still hinges on downstream affordability.

The average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 18/kg. Prices for Malaysian-made polysilicon have inched up slightly, though price for polysilicon inventory currently remains at USD 16/kg.

In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon are at USD 22-23/kg. At the start of 2026, prices edged up modestly due to risks related to Section 232. Spot transactions in January have been delivered at USD 24–26/kg.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Manufacturers have reached a consensus to curb output in 1Q26, with leading manufacturers confirming shutdowns in late January and others planning to reduce utilization rates in February. As a result, monthly output is expected to remain at low levels, with global output fluctuating around 80,000–100,000 MT. However, given current weak demand and limited transaction volumes, manufacturers should guard against the risk of inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued to weaken this week, with the overall average price declining as expected and price levels moving lower. Notably, the prices in this update are based on data from January 22 to January 28. Although current spot prices have fallen below the average level, earlier higher-priced transactions are still included. As a result, this week’s average price reflects the full price range during the period rather than the latest spot lows.

By wafer format, transaction prices are as follows:

•    183N: RMB 1.25-1.35/piece, averaging RMB 1.35/piece

•    210RN: RMB 1.35-1.50/piece, averaging RMB 1.45/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.50-1.70/piece, averaging RMB 1.65/piece

The average price remains influenced by earlier higher-priced levels. In addition, some direct-procurement orders were concluded at higher prices during Jan. 22-23, and these were therefore included in the current price range calculation.

Overall, wafer prices continue to trend lower. While some higher-priced deals were still executed on Jan. 22, no meaningful transactions have been recorded since then. As price support significantly weakens, large-volume deals remain limited, the lower price range continues to widen, and early signs of inventory accumulation are emerging. With end demand soft and cell makers expected to further cut February output, downstream procurement remains subdued. In the near term, wafer prices face continued downside risk, with limited upside momentum.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

•    Average prices: 183N, 210RN, and 210N have all risen to RMB 0.45/W.

•    Price ranges: 183N, 210RN, and 210N are all at RMB 0.43–0.45/W.

Surging silver prices have once again pushed delivery prices higher across all cell formats, with levels broadly rising to around RMB 0.45/W as of January 28. Tier-1 cell manufacturers have further raised their quotes; however, amid persistently low transaction volumes, divergence among suppliers has widened, with current quotes ranging RMB 0.46–0.48/W.

The recent cancellation of export tax rebates has yet to stimulate cell transaction volumes. Instead, rising silver costs have prompted most integrated module manufacturers to suspend external cell procurement. Looking ahead to February, cell manufacturers’ production outlook remains cautious, with expectations of further production cuts. Some suppliers are even considering extending Lunar New Year shutdowns or halting production through February, as they await clearer signals on silver price movements and a potential recovery in demand.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P cells remains flat at USD 0.047/W this week. While Chinese Tier-1 manufacturers had previously suspended exports, they have started re-quoting for February deliveries. The higher-priced segment—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—faces sluggish demand and few shipment volumes. However, recent silver cost increases have triggered Southeast Asia-origin cell suppliers to raise quotes, lifting the average price to USD 0.09/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

Following price movements in China, the average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.059/W this week. High-priced n-type cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. remain unchanged WoW, with the average holding at USD 0.12/W and a price range of USD 0.11–0.14/W.
 

Module

Surging silver prices have pushed module costs higher. On January 28, silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed RMB 29,000/kg, up by more than RMB 6,000/kg WoW, translating into a RMB 0.05/W rise in tax-inclusive cell costs. Module manufacturers have been forced to raise quotes amid mounting cost pressure. Current price quotes for distributed modules in China stand at RMB 0.80–0.88/W, while actual transaction prices are at RMB 0.75–0.80/W.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have been raised again this week, with the average price in China rising to RMB 0.739/W, primarily driven by the continued increase in the share of distributed channels and the accompanying rise in average transaction prices to RMB 0.76/W in the distributed segment.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules has increased to USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.10-0.13/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.