Rising silver prices heighten cost pressures, pushing cell and module prices even higher

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quote increases have become a clear trend, with some wafer makers adjusting prices accordingly. Starting this week, new orders—primarily concluded in limited volumes through strategic bundling or contractual arrangements—have been transacted at RMB 60–65/kg. However, some major wafer producers have yet to place new orders, as their existing polysilicon inventories remain relatively high. Preliminary indications suggest that overall new quotes may settle at RMB 63–65/kg, with other suppliers following the upward price quote trends led by Tier-1 players.

Previous contracts continue to account for the majority of trading volumes; transaction prices have shown an upward bias.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 53–60/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 50-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

Large-scale signing of new orders is more likely to take place in mid-to-late January.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, polysilicon inventory prices have edged up to USD 16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon have held steady at USD 20–21/kg. Meanwhile, spot prices have shown an upward trend, rising to USD 23–24/kg, as buyers seek to hedge against policy-related risks.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts.

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Extending last week’s overall wafer market landscape, prices have seen no significant changes this week. Mainstream transaction ranges have remained largely in line with the last week. While trading activity was relatively subdued last week, market transactions have gradually picked up this week, indicating a modest improvement in shipment volumes.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Transaction prices have held at RMB 1.38–1.40/piece this week. While a small number of orders have been concluded with discounts of around RMB 0.02/piece, the overall transaction center remained stable at RMB 1.40/piece, with traded volumes gradually increasing.

•    210RN: Prices have also stayed in line with last week, sitting at RMB 1.48–1.50/piece. Despite sporadic low-priced transactions, mainstream deals continue to cluster around RMB 1.50/piece.

•    210N: Constrained by relatively sluggish downstream demand, transaction volumes have remained limited this week. Bargaining room has been narrow, with actual deals mostly concentrated at RMB 1.70/piece.

Overall, following the previous round of price adjustments, expectations of rising upstream costs have continued to gain traction, reinforcing price-support sentiment across the wafer segment. At the same time, cell manufacturers’ acceptance of current wafer prices has improved. Among all wafer formats, 183N has recorded a notable increase in its production share this month, with market acceptance significantly outperforming other formats.

Amid sustained expectations of polysilicon price increases, low-priced tradable orders have become increasingly scarce. While no large-volume transactions have been concluded this week, actual deals indicate that the wafer price levels are gradually edging higher.

On the supply side, wafer production plans for January are expected to remain broadly in line with December 2025, suggesting no near-term surge in supply. As a result, a price pullback may be unlikely, and wafer prices are expected to stay largely stable into next week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week are as follows: 

•    183N:   

Average price: RMB 0.39/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.37–0.40/W 

•    210RN:   

Average price: RMB 0.39/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0.37–0.40/W 

•    210N:   

Average price: RMB 0.39/W (up) 

Price range: RMB 0. 37–0.40/W

Driven by the continued increase in cell prices, transaction volumes declined markedly this week. Most leading integrated module manufacturers have suspended cell procurement or are only accepting small-lot spot deals.

Tier-2 and 3 cell makers gradually concluded transactions last week at around RMB 0.38/W, while leading cell manufacturers were able to deliver at RMB 0.39/W. However, overall transaction volumes remained extremely limited. Following the recent rise in silver prices to a short-term high above RMB 19,000/kg this week, cost pressures on cell manufacturers have intensified once again.

As of Wednesday, January 7, leading cell manufacturers have broadly raised their quotes to above RMB 0.40/W and have begun suspending deliveries. However, as upstream price hike demands have yet to be fully passed through to the module segment, cell transaction volumes have remained subdued. Cell production cuts initiated in January are expected to extend into February, as manufacturers respond to mounting cost pressures and persistently weak demand.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells has increased to USD 0.047/W this week. In China, delivery prices remain at RMB 0.36/W. China’s cell exports have declined further. Higher-end prices have largely been sustained by cells produced using non-China polysilicon and exported directly from Southeast Asia to the U.S. Shipment volumes of such products have already become relatively limited, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has increased to USD 0.051/W this week. Export-oriented manufacturers in China have broadly raised delivery prices to RMB 0.39/W, with further upside potential in subsequent pricing. Meanwhile, higher-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-China polysilicon and exported to the U.S. are quoted at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the weekly average holding at USD 0.11/W.
 

Module prices in China

Leading module makers have broadly responded to industry self-regulation initiatives and gradually begun to raise module quotes. As price-hike signals have become clearer, transactions in the distributed generation (DG) channel have moved up first. 

Meanwhile, the rapid rise in silver prices has placed significant cost pressure on the cell segment, further reinforcing price-increase expectations across the supply chain. Toward year-end, pricing in the module segment has also begun to reflect rising silver cost pressure, with quoted prices moving higher across both TOPCon and BC modules.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have been raised again this week, with the domestic average price increasing to RMB 0.70/W, primarily driven by a higher share of distributed projects and a reduced proportion of ground-mounted projects.

On the demand side, overall market demand has continued to soften as the year draws to a close. In China, execution volumes of orders on hand have gradually declined, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. Non-China markets have likewise slowed procurement momentum as the year-end approaches. Looking ahead to early next year, against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.

TOPCon module prices in China: 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.71/W

In the HJT segment, average transaction prices have been revised again this week, rising to RMB 0.76/W, corresponding to mainstream HJT module power ratings of 720–725 W. Higher-power 730–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.78-0.84/W.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Overall prices remain stable, but module makers have generally raised quotes for 2026’s orders from non-China markets.

For TOPCon modules in non-China markets, the average price have increased to USD 0.089/W. In Europe, module prices for project deployments have also been adjusted upward in response to rising silver prices, with distributor and project prices ranging from USD 0.86–0.90/W. Accordingly, the weekly average price has been revised to USD 0.087/W.

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific are mostly at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    In Australia, modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W.

3.    In India, non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Overall prices have remained unchanged at USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate. There are rumors of potential changes in the near term.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects stay flat at USD 0.27–0.28/W, while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms, and companies have begun engaging testing agencies and law firms to prepare compliance documentation.