Upstream sees signs of price slips; downstream remains constrained by rising silver costs

Polysilicon

Negative news flow surrounding polysilicon from last week continues to weigh on the market. Coupled with the current off-season for demand and the fact that wafer makers are still holding a certain level of inventories, no large-scale polysilicon transactions have been concluded this week. Spot prices have been influenced by movements in the futures market, with spot and futures-linked prices reported at around RMB 49–50/kg. Prices from some small- and medium-scale producers have edged lower, while leading manufacturers have held prices firm and continued deliveries at previously agreed prices. 

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 48-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

Large-scale signing of new orders is more likely to take place in mid- to late January.

Although polysilicon producers continue to push price quotes at elevated levels of RMB 63–65/kg, downstream acceptance has weakened. Most wafer manufacturers have recently adopted a wait-and-see stance, suspending procurement, with some expecting prices to retreat toward transaction levels seen in the futures market. Ultimately, the pass-through of price increases still hinges on downstream affordability.

The average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, with polysilicon inventory prices at USD 16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon are at USD 22-23/kg. At the start of 2026, prices edged up modestly due to risks related to Section 232. Spot transactions during December–January have been delivered at USD 23–26/kg.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts.

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have shown signs of a gradual WoW slip this week. However, overall transaction momentum remains weak, with limited actual trading volumes. From a quoting perspective, Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers have started to slightly lower their quotes, while Tier-1 players have largely maintained relatively firm quotes. Only a handful of sporadic transactions have been observed, and the market remains in a phase of negotiation and wait-and-see sentiment.

By wafer format, transaction prices are as follows:

•    183N: RMB 1.30–1.40/piece

•    210RN: RMB 1.40–1.50/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.55–1.70/piece

It is worth noting that while these price ranges appear largely unchanged, actual tradable volumes remain extremely limited. Most transactions continue to be executed via dual-distribution channels or traders, while direct procurement from downstream cell producers remains subdued. As a result, no meaningful pickup in shipment volumes has materialized.

From the demand side, the outlook for end-market demand in Q1 remains conservative. Cell makers show limited willingness to ramp up production, and acceptance of current wafer quotes remains low, significantly constraining price support across the supply chain. Meanwhile, signs of price slipping have emerged in recent negotiations among some small- and medium-scale polysilicon producers. The market generally expects this pricing pressure to gradually transmit downstream, further weighing on wafer price expectations. That said, most wafer manufacturers remain in a bargaining phase and have yet to implement broad-based adjustments to their pricing strategies. In the absence of a meaningful pickup in transaction volumes, the market is expected to remain in a stalemate in the near term, with wafer prices likely to trend mildly weaker on a gradual basis.
 

Cell prices in China

This week, n-type cell prices across all formats (183N, 210RN, 210N) have risen to RMB 0.40-0.43/W, averaging RMB 0.42/W.

Silver prices have increased again, pushing up production costs. Leading cell manufacturers are delivering above RMB 0.42/W, while some Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers are still delivering mainly at RMB 0.40-0.41/W. As of January 21, Tier-1 cell makers have begun to gradually halt RMB 0.42/W deliveries and are raising quotes to RMB 0.44-0.45/W.

Chinese cell exports currently exhibit a pattern of quoted prices without matching transaction volumes. External cell procurement volumes by integrated module makers remains weak. Despite a lift in downstream pricing sentiment driven by discussions around the removal of export tax rebates, elevated silver costs and sluggish demand continue to limit cell makers’ ability to increase utilization rates in January and February.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average price for 182P cells remains flat at USD 0.047/W this week. Cell exports from China’s Tier-1 manufacturers have largely been suspended.

The higher-priced segment consists of cells produced using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported directly from Southeast Asia to the U.S. While shipment volumes of such products have already become limited, recent silver cost increases have prompted Southeast Asia-origin cell suppliers to raise quotes, lifting the average price to USD 0.09/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has increased to USD 0.056/W this week. Export-oriented manufacturers in China have broadly raised delivery prices to RMB 0.43/W, with further upside potential in subsequent pricing due to cost changes. Quotes for higher-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-China polysilicon and exported to the U.S. have risen, with the price range adjusting to USD 0.11–0.14/W and the weekly average increasing to USD 0.12/W.
 

Module

Surging silver prices have pushed module costs higher. On January 21, silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed RMB 23,000/kg, forcing module manufacturers to raise quotes amid mounting cost pressure. Current quoted prices for distributed modules in China stand at RMB 0.80–0.88/W, while actual transaction prices are at RMB 0.70–0.80/W.

According to InfoLink’s estimates, module manufacturing costs (after tax) are around RMB 0.35–0.36/W. Combined with current cell prices of RMB 0.42/W, total module costs have reached RMB 0.77–0.78/W, further narrowing the gap with prevailing market quotes and intensifying cost pressure on manufacturers.

As price-uptrend signals become clearer, downstream project developers have started accepting new quotes. In China’s distributed market, incremental procurement is largely driven by expectations of rising prices rather than underlying demand. Distributors and traders have front-loaded purchases on bullish sentiment, temporarily lifting distributed module prices, though the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have been raised again this week, with the average price in China increasing to RMB 0.717/W, primarily driven by the continued increase in the share of distributed channels and the accompanying rise in average transaction prices to RMB 0.73/W in the distributed segment.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules has increased to USD 0.094/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.09-0.13/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.