Supply chain raises quotes amid rising costs; market acceptance remains key

Polysilicon

P Negative news flow surrounding polysilicon from last week continues to weigh on the market. Coupled with the current off-season for demand and the fact that wafer manufacturers are still holding a certain level of inventories, no large-scale polysilicon transactions have been concluded this week. Current deliveries are mainly tied to previously signed orders, with only limited spot deals taking place. Based on this week’s overall average price, earlier contracts continue to account for the majority, while transaction prices have shown an upward bias.

Overall average prices this week:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 53–60/kg

•    Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 50-52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–60/kg

Large-scale signing of new orders is more likely to take place in mid- to late January.

Although polysilicon producers continue to push quoted prices at elevated levels of RMB 63–65/kg, downstream acceptance has weakened. Most wafer manufacturers have recently adopted a wait-and-see stance, temporarily suspending procurement, with some expecting prices to retreat toward transaction levels seen in the futures market. Ultimately, the pass-through of price increases still hinges on downstream affordability. Only a small number of downstream players and spot–futures traders have made purchases, with transaction prices hovering around RMB 49–51/kg.

The average price for non-China polysilicon remains at USD 17-18/kg, with polysilicon inventory prices at USD 16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon are at USD 22-23/kg. At the start of the year, prices edged up modestly due to risks related to Section 232. Spot transactions during December–January have been delivered at USD 23–26/kg.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Although manufacturers have reached a consensus on controlling output in 1Q26, the effectiveness will hinge on the actual implementation of production cuts.

As the first quarter is traditionally a seasonal low, transaction volumes are set to remain limited amid subdued demand. Manufacturers should be alerted to the risk of further inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Extending last week’s stable wafer market landscape, overall average price remains flat WoW, with no notable changes observed. Based on actual transaction activity, market momentum remains limited, with no batch-scale deals recorded. Only a small number of direct-procurement orders have been released on a sporadic basis, leaving overall trading sentiment stuck in a continued stalemate.

Mainstream prices this week are broadly in line with last week, although the lower end of the price range has loosened slightly compared with earlier periods.

By wafer format:

•    183N: Transaction prices have held at RMB 1.40/piece this week, while limited low-priced deals have still been observed retreating to RMB 1.35/piece.

•    210RN: Prices have held at RMB 1.50/piece, with lower-end transactions slipping to around RMB 1.45/piece. 

•    210N: Mainstream transaction prices have stayed at RMB 1.70/piece, while sporadic low-priced deals have been seen at RMB 1.65/piece.

From the demand side, most cell manufacturers remain in a wait-and-see mode. With weak end-market demand and limited willingness to ramp up output, acceptance of higher wafer prices remains conservative. At present, the market is still mainly characterized by dual-distribution models, such as procuring materials for tolling at wafer manufacturers.

Importantly, following the release of news related to export tax rebate rates last week, some integrated ingot-pulling players have adopted a more proactive stance toward subsequent production scheduling. As a result, demand performance in non-China markets this year is likely to improve relative to Q1 levels in previous years, potentially providing upward support to wafer prices outside China.

That said, cost developments on the cell side still warrant close attention. Recent continued increases in silver prices have materially pushed up cell manufacturing costs, which may constrain cell makers’ willingness to ramp up output. If cell-side production momentum fails to materialize while wafer output continues to rise, downside price risks would persist.

Overall, supply and demand have yet to reach a clear consensus in the near term. In the absence of a meaningful pickup in transaction volumes, wafer prices are expected to stay largely stable next week.
 

Cell in China

N-type cell prices this week are as follows:

•    183N:    

Average price: RMB 0.40/W (up)  

Price range: RMB 0.39-0.42/W  

•    210RN:    

Average price: RMB 0.40/W (up)  

Price range: RMB 0.39-0.42/W  

•    210N:    

Average price: RMB 0.40/W (up)  

Price range: RMB 0.39-0.42/W

Silver prices have reached a new high again this week. Leading cell manufacturers are delivering at RMB 0.40/W, while some Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers are still delivering mainly at RMB 0.38–0.39/W. As of January 14, 2026, in response to rising silver costs, Tier-1 cell makers have broadly raised quotes to above RMB 0.42/W, with few deliveries already reported. However, vertically integrated module manufacturers have yet to accept these higher prices.

The market remains broadly cautious amid expectations following the potential cancellation of China’s export tax rebates. Pricing sentiment across upstream and downstream segments continues to diverge. Specialized Chinese domestic cell manufacturers are attempting to push quotes above cost levels, but these quotes have yet to be accepted by most vertically integrated module producers. As a result, production cuts are expected to persist among specialized cell makers in January, while vertically integrated manufacturers are instead considering ramping up in-house cell production.
 

Cell in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells remains flat at USD 0.047/W this week. In China, delivery prices remain at RMB 0.36/W. Cell exports from China’s Tier-1 manufacturers have largely been suspended.

Higher-end prices have largely been sustained by cells produced using non-China polysilicon and exported directly from Southeast Asia to the U.S. Shipment volumes of such products have already become relatively limited, with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 183N cells from China rises to USD 0.054/W this week. Export-oriented manufacturers in China have broadly raised delivery prices to RMB 0.41/W, with further upside potential in subsequent quotes due to cost pressures. 

Meanwhile, higher-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-China polysilicon and exported to the U.S. are quoted at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the weekly average holding at USD 0.11/W.
 

Module in China

Leading module makers have broadly responded to industry self-regulation initiatives and gradually begun to raise module quotes. As price-hike signals have become clearer, distribution channels of distributed generation (DG) continue to see transaction prices breaking higher. Current deal ranges are at RMB 0.67–0.80/W, with the average price at RMB 0.72/W.

Meanwhile, the rapid rise in silver prices has placed significant cost pressure on the cell segment, further reinforcing price-increase expectations across the supply chain.

As observed this week, pricing in the module segment has also begun to reflect rising silver cost pressures, with quoted prices moving higher across both TOPCon and BC modules, rising above RMB 0.8/W.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have been raised again this week, with the average price in China increasing to RMB 0.71/W, primarily driven by the continued increase in the share of distributed channels and the accompanying rise in average transaction prices in the distributed segment.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.

TOPCon module prices in China: 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W 

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.71/W

In the HJT segment, average transaction prices have been revised again this week, rising to RMB 0.76/W, corresponding to mainstream HJT module power ratings of 720–725 W. Higher-power 730–740 W modules exhibit a wider price gap, with top-end prices reaching RMB 0.78-0.84/W.
 

Module in non-China markets

Driven by the combined impact of policy factors related to export tax rebate and elevated silver costs, module makers have generally raised quotes. Current export quotes are in the range of USD 0.09–0.13/W.

For TOPCon modules in non-China markets, the average price have increased to USD 0.089/W. In Europe, module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.087–0.10/W.