Wafer prices slip further; cell prices stabilize amid a pullback in silver prices

Polysilicon

A small number of new polysilicon orders have recently been concluded at lower price levels, mainly involving mid-tier producers. This week, polysilicon makers have continued discussions on pricing and supply strategies, leaving most market participants in a wait-and-see mode as they await further news. Amid the current demand off-season, Tier-1 producers have maintained high-end quotes at RMB 63/kg, while mid-tier producers have also started to raise their quotes gradually.

Overall average prices this week: 

Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 45-59/kg 

Mono-grade polysilicon (mixed lots): RMB 42-49/kg 

Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–52/kg 

Batch signings of orders have been delayed under the influence of recent news flow.

The average price for non-China-made polysilicon remains at USD 18/kg. Prices for Malaysian-made polysilicon have inched up slightly, though price for polysilicon inventory currently remains at USD 16/kg. In the U.S., long-term contract prices for U.S. domestic polysilicon are at USD 22-23/kg. At the start of 2026, prices edged up modestly due to risks related to Section 232. Spot transactions in January have been delivered at USD 24–26/kg.

Market sentiment remains cautious amid rising inventories and sluggish demand. Polysilicon makers are signaling price stabilization via self-regulation measures. Manufacturers have reached a consensus to curb output in 1Q26, with leading manufacturers confirming shutdowns in late January and others planning to reduce utilization rates in February. As a result, monthly output is expected to remain low, with global output fluctuating around 80,000–100,000 MT. However, given current weak demand and limited transaction volumes, manufacturers should guard against the risk of inventory buildup during Q1.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to weaken this week, extending the downward trend observed last week, with the market still undergoing a gradual price decline. Amid sluggish demand and mounting inventory pressure, prices across all wafer formats have remained under strain, and the overall price midpoint has moved further lower.

By wafer format:

183N:

Transaction prices are at RMB 1.20–1.25/piece, with the average slipping to RMB 1.25/piece. Most low-priced deals have been around RMB 1.20/piece. Beyond trader-led deals, some quotes have begun gradually edging below RMB 1.20/piece, and further transactions at these levels may be likely, indicating that downside price expectations persist.

210RN:

Prices land at RMB 1.25–1.35/piece, averaging RMB 1.35/piece. Transaction prices have shown noticeable divergence, with some deals already falling to RMB 1.25–1.30/piece, suggesting a continued downward shift in the price midpoint.

210N:

Transaction prices are at RMB 1.45–1.55/piece, averaging RMB 1.55/piece. Lower-priced deals at RMB 1.45/piece have also been observed, reflecting a coexistence of high and low prices and an ongoing release of low-priced offers.

Overall, multiple wafer manufacturers have implemented more than two rounds of quote adjustments from January 29 through this week. As prices have been revised downward, downstream acceptance has shown a modest improvement. However, transactions have remained largely limited to restocking and sporadic releases, with no clear signs of large-scale procurement momentum. At the same time, wafer inventories are still piling up. With cell makers further scaling back their February production plans, inventory pressure is unlikely to ease meaningfully in the near term.

Looking ahead, upcoming meetings and industry coordination efforts may provide temporary support to market sentiment. Nevertheless, amid consecutive price declines and elevated inventory levels, wafer prices are expected to remain low and continue to consolidate next week.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week: 

•    Average prices: 183N, 210RN, and 210N have all remained flat at RMB 0.45/W. 

•    Price ranges: 183N, 210RN, and 210N have all stayed at RMB 0.43–0.45/W.

Following the pullback from recent silver price highs, the market has begun to form expectations of potential cell price declines. However, physical silver supply remains relatively tight, and manufacturers still need to pay premiums to secure spot silver. As a result, Tier-1 cell manufacturers maintain their quotes at RMB 0.45/W.

With respect to February production plans, aside from manufacturers that have already confirmed production cuts or holiday shutdowns, some Tier-1 cell producers raised their monthly output plans in early February and resumed procurement of silver after prices retreated from recent highs. Overall, cell production in February is still expected to remain lower than in January, with market participants continuing to await signs of demand stabilization in March.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD: 

The average price for 182P cells has risen to USD 0.05/W this week. Tier-1 manufacturers in China have raised production of this format and have resumed exports for February deliveries. The higher-priced segment—cells made with non-Chinese polysilicon and exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S.—remains scarce in shipment volume, with the average price holding at USD 0.09/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

Following price movements in China, the average export price for 183N cells from China has remained flat at USD 0.059/W this week. However, buyers outside China have begun requesting lower quotes in response to recent silver price movements. High-priced cells produced in Southeast Asia using non-Chinese polysilicon and exported to the U.S. remain unchanged WoW, with the average holding at USD 0.12/W and a price range of USD 0.11–0.14/W.
 

Module

Recent volatility in silver prices—marked by sharp rallies followed by pullbacks—has led to fluctuations in module production costs. In response, module manufacturers have raised quotes in line with their respective cost structures. This week, quotes for distributed PV modules in China have been raised to RMB 0.80–0.88/W, while actual transaction prices have landed at RMB 0.75–0.80/W.

TOPCon module market benchmark prices have remained unchanged this week. The average TOPCon module price in China is at RMB 0.739/W, with the average transaction price for distributed projects at RMB 0.76/W.

In non-China markets, the average price of TOPCon modules has increased to USD 0.096/W. Module orders are also being broadly renegotiated in response to export tax rebate developments, with corresponding upward adjustments to local market prices. As a result, both distribution and project prices have moved into the range of USD 0.10-0.13/W.

On the demand side, overall market demand has remained weak. In China, execution volumes of on-hand ground-mounted project orders are gradually declining, while visibility on newly signed orders remains limited. On the other hand, procurement momentum in non-China markets has reversed and strengthened under the influence of China’s policy developments related to export tax rebate. As a result, shipments in Q1 are expected to be primarily driven by non-China markets. Against a backdrop of seasonally weaker demand compounded by the recent uptick in module prices, procurement sentiment has turned more cautious, leaving order visibility for 1Q26 still insufficient.