Policy tailwinds continue to build, but demand recovery has yet to follow

Polysilicon

Chinese polysilicon producers continue to respond to the government’s “anti-price war” initiative. Companies have significantly raised price quotes. Pricing adjustments are based on a principle of “not below full cost.” Sellers have raised offers for mono-grade polysilicon chunks further to RMB 50-52/kg, with potential increases to RMB 55/kg depending on downstream acceptance. Some key clients have received quotes around RMB 49/kg. For granular polysilicon, prices are around RMB 42-45/kg, with offers expected to rise toward RMB 45/kg.

On the demand side, buyers continue to purchase in small batches this week, with some new orders delivered alongside earlier ones. No large-volume deals have been finalized so far. As earlier deliveries conclude, prices are based on new orders. Overall volumes have dipped slightly, however, and market sentiment remains cautious.

Price gaps still vary widely this week, with price range diverging further amid cautious sentiment, reflecting unresolved negotiations. Prices are at RMB 35-50/kg for mono-grade polysilicon and RMB 45-52/kg for recycled polysilicon. As earlier orders near completion, average prices this week are more closely aligned with newly signed contracts. The sharp price increase has prompted some manufacturers to consider resuming or expanding production. Despite ongoing maintenance at a few facilities, August polysilicon output is expected to exceed 110,000 MT, possibly nearing 120,000 MT.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 19/kg, some suppliers have cut prices to USD 16–17/kg. However, with U.S.-bound suppliers adjusting their production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a mild price rebound in August is likely.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have risen notably this week compared to last. Although new quotes were proposed during last week’s Beijing meeting—RMB 1.45/piece for 183N, RMB 1.65/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.93/piece for 210N—these higher levels did not lead to actual deals. Nonetheless, the upward pricing signal has improved market sentiment, marking a transitional phase toward price recovery.

This week, mainstream transaction prices have increased slightly to RMB 1.10/piece for 183N, RMB 1.25/piece for 210RN, and RMB 1.45/piece for 210N. Overall, market confidence in a short-term price rebound is gradually strengthening. Notably, most wafer manufacturers are rejecting orders below current price levels and planning further price increases, reflecting confidence in a price recovery and possible quote increase next week. However, downstream acceptance from the cell segment and end-market remains a key factor to watch in the short term.

On the supply side, overall wafer utilization remains low despite a few manufacturers ramping up production, keeping price pressure limited. Meanwhile, some polysilicon manufacturers have initiated shutdowns and maintenance, increasing the likelihood of continued short-term price gains and providing strong support for wafer prices.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

•    Average prices of all formats have risen to RMB 0.27/W.

Price ranges:

•    183N: RMB 0.265–0.28/W 

•    210RN & 210N: RMB 0.27–0.275/W

The continuous increases are driven by multiple factors, including rising wafer prices, anticipated cancellation of export tax rebates, and evolving policy dynamics in non-China markets. These developments have pushed both transaction prices and quotes for all cell formats higher.

Notably, 183N cells, which are primarily for exports, have posted more pronounced gains, supported by market expectations of further price hikes in China. Quotes for larger-format cells have reached RMB 0.275–0.28/W this week, with delivery prices set to climb further in the latter half of the week.

Price hikes for cells are likely after supply chain price negotiations, mainly to offset mounting costs. In addition, the anticipated cancellation of export tax rebates continues to lend upward support.

Looking ahead, policy-driven momentum may help lift cell prices out of their current cash-cost-level lows, paving the way for manufacturers to return to sustainable profitability.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 182P cells from China has risen to USD 0.037/W this week, in line with price hikes for n-type cells. Quotes have continued to climb, with some suppliers now quoting above USD 0.040/W.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.085/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.035/W this week. Supported by all positive factors, price hikes are expected to continue, while the extent will depend on how price negotiations unfold across the supply chain.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells made with non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices have widened to USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average price holding steady at USD 0.12/W. The implementation of the U.S. reciprocal tariff has been postponed to August 1, and tariff rates by country may still vary. InfoLink will continue to monitor U.S. policy developments and provide a comprehensive analysis once they are finalized.
 

Module prices in China

Recent deliveries in China are mainly tied to earlier replenishment, with most large-scale projects yet to begin. While demand has weakened, the impact has not been fully reflected in pricing. In response to supply chain fluctuations and the anti-price war policy, manufacturers have raised quotes by RMB 0.01–0.02/W. Tier-1 players are also reducing shipments priced below RMB 0.70/W. New spot prices for TOPCon modules have started to rise slightly, with some small-volume deals signed at RMB 0.68–0.72/W. Prices for distributed generation projects have edged up, but given the mix of the previous and new orders—especially with some July-end deliveries wrapping up—the average price has only seen a mild adjustment. As more August orders are signed and delivered, the average price may rise by RMB 0.01/W.

Prices for ground-mounted projects have remained flat. Most TOPCon modules have been delivered at RMB 0.62–0.68/W, with slight price increases at the lower end due to recent market shifts.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.62-0.72/W

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.64-0.70/W

Ground-mounted projects:

•    Prices stay at RMB 0.64–0.68/W amid falling demand.

•    Lower-end prices (from previous deliveries): RMB 0.62–0.63/W

Distributed spot market:

•    Prices slightly recover, reaching RMB 0.70-0.72/W.

PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.70–0.83/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70–0.78/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.70–0.75/W

N-TBC:

•    Prices have slipped slightly this week.

•    Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.73–0.80/W

•    Current quotes: RMB 0.73–0.79/W

•    Note: Prices exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have been buying cells from Southeast Asia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Manufacturers are gradually shifting more shipments to non-Europe markets. For Q4 orders, price negotiations are trending downward, approaching USD 0.08/W. Notably, manufacturers have recently started factoring potential changes to export tax rebates into contracts, which could lead to further price hikes in Europe.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs and compliance requirements under the OBBBA, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating adjustments. Some projects have reportedly been put on hold, and price updates have yet to be finalized. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.28/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally-made modules are also trending upward.