210N prices rise, driven by ground-mounted demand in China

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes have remained largely unchanged this week. Toward the end of last week, polysilicon makers attempted to raise quotes, but ingot makers were unable to absorb higher costs amid weak end-user demand.

As a result, price quotes fail to move higher:

•    Tier-1 makers: RMB 55/kg (flat)

•    Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers: RMB 52–53/kg (flat)

•    New granular polysilicon orders: RMB 51/kg (flat)

The upward momentum of quotes has started to narrow.

Transaction volumes have declined compared with last week, with only small orders signed after September 18.

Current deliveries are mainly tied to contracts placed in early September, with execution prices this week as follows:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 49–55/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 47–50/kg

As rolling adjustments continue to incorporate earlier orders, the next round of deliveries is expected after China’s National Day holiday.

Average execution prices are projected to settle at:

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 51–52/kg

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 50–51/kg

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to secure more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period, leading to a modest uptick in September orders. However, uncertainties on the demand side continue to cap price hikes, making significant gains unlikely.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, but concrete measures have yet to be released. For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-user demand. With rising costs in other materials also adding pressure, downstream players are increasingly unable to absorb higher polysilicon prices.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have continued to hold firm this week, extending stability last week.

Transaction ranges across wafer formats have narrowed gradually:

•    183N: Steady at RMB 1.35/piece, supported by resilient demand.

•    210N: Stable at RMB 1.70/piece, with solid transactions driven by strong demand from China’s ground-mounted projects and recent output increases.

•    210RN: Despite new quotes offered last week, limited buyer acceptance has kept mainstream transaction prices concentrated at RMB 1.40/piece.

By wafer format:

•    183N and 210N: More actively traded than 210RN, with 210N’s momentum directly tied to the ramp-up of ground-mounted projects.

•    210RN: Despite some low-priced deliveries, many cell makers already hold sizable inventories of this format, dampening transaction activity and leaving it weaker than other formats. 

Wafer production plans for October are expected to remain broadly in line with September. Given the continuous nature of ingot pulling and the still-reasonable inventories, holiday downtime will likely be minimal. Output trends will continue to be monitored toward the end of September.

Polysilicon prices have yet to move higher this week but remain supported by the “anti-price war” policy, providing stable cost support for wafers. Wafer prices are expected to hold steady next week, with a bias toward further increases rather than declines.
 

Cell prices in China

Raised quotes at the start of last week are gradually delivered throughout this week.

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.32/W (up) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.315-0.32/W (up)  

210RN:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.29/W (up)

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W (flat)

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.31/W (up) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.3-0.31/W (flat)

Given its high capacity share, 210RN’s oversupply persists, limiting price gains. Recent delivery prices have diverged between leading and Tier-2, 3 manufacturers.

Looking ahead to October, cell prices will follow supply-demand dynamics: 

183N will be supported by Indian orders; 210N benefits from China’s ground-mounted demand with potential for gains; 210R is expected to remain stable as some manufacturers plan production cuts, assuming no major policy or price shifts across the supply chain.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD stay at last week’s levels:

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    P-type cell demand in India continues to provide support, stabilizing prices this week. 

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.042/W this week, continuing last week’s upward trend.

Indian demand is driven by multiple factors, such as anticipated price increases under China’s anti-price war policies, India’s lowered goods tax rates, and eased ALMM restrictions on imported cells for some projects. Chinese manufacturers have raised quotes above USD 0.33/W, with transaction prices likely to see further increases.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

Most module deliveries this week are tied to previous orders. Module manufacturers have been negotiating price hikes with downstream buyers while limiting low-priced deliveries. Overall average transaction prices have inched up, with bulk deliveries now at RMB 0.67–0.70/W.

Toward year-end, some Chinese downstream companies remain short of their 14th Five-Year Plan targets, and the first round of mechanism tariff bidding projects must be commissioned. With recent renegotiated module prices and rising costs, new orders have seen slight price hikes over the past two weeks. It is worth noting that demand for 210N modules is increasing, driven by rising ground-mounted projects.

For distributed projects, stocking demand before China’s National Day holiday, along with C&I and self-consumption project installations, has supported price stability this week, with a modest increase in high-priced orders.

Overall, module demand has increased compared with earlier levels. Ground-mounted projects are expected to support demand in October, while order intake in November and December will need to be closely monitored.

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon glass-glass: 

•    RMB 0.61-0.73/W  

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.67-0.70/W  

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.63-0.69/W 

•    Earlier price-adjusted projects: RMB 0.61-0.63/W 

•    Distributed spot market: Only a few transactions are concluded above RMT 0.70/W, but the transaction volume of such cases, accounting for 10-20% at certain manufacturers. Major clients are receiving orders at RMB 0.66-0.69/W.

PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.70-0.83/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70-0.75/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.75-0.83/W

N-TBC:

•    RMB 0.71-0.80/W

•    Note: Price quotes exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition hse emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have now become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects remain at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly influenced module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.