Q4 demand may contract; market impact hinges on anti-price war policy details

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes have remained largely unchanged this week:

•    Tier-1 makers: RMB 55/kg.

•    Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers: RMB 52–53/kg.

•    New granular polysilicon orders: RMB 51/kg.

The upward momentum of quotes has moderated due to limited downstream acceptance.

After China’s National Day holiday, polysilicon spot transactions have remained limited, with ingot manufacturers holding adequate inventories to maintain production. Most producers continue to observe policy developments, while recent market news has further reinforced a wait-and-see sentiment. Current deliveries are mainly tied to contracts placed in late September. Orders signed earlier are scheduled for delivery after the holiday. Overall average prices this week are RMB 51-52/kg for recycled mono-grade polysilicon and RMB 50-51/kg for granular polysilicon.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

The Section 232 investigation has prompted many producers to secure more non-Chinese polysilicon supply during the current window period, leading to a modest uptick in September orders. However, uncertainties on the demand side continue to cap price hikes, making significant gains unlikely.

In China, discussions on the implementation of anti-price war stockpiling policies are still underway, but concrete measures have yet to be released. For now, market dynamics remain largely dictated by end-user demand. With rising costs in other materials also adding pressure, downstream players are increasingly unable to absorb higher polysilicon prices.
 

Wafer

After China’s National Day holiday, October wafer production rose notably from September, while the market maintained a firm pricing stance. Transaction prices showed little change this week, with slight divergence in low-priced 210RN transactions, some falling below mainstream levels.

By wafer format:

• 183N: Prices hold steady at RMB 1.35/piece. Anticipation of India’s anti-dumping duties taking effect by year-end has prompted a short-term increase in procurement, while firmer non-China cell prices indirectly supported current wafer levels.

• 210N: Prices remain steady at RMB 1.70/piece, with transaction activity increasing notably due to demand for ground-mounted projects. Both production and shipment shares rise in tandem, drawing heightened market attention.

• 210RN: Mainstream prices hold at RMB 1.40/piece, but trading remained sluggish, with some deals below this level reflecting weak demand and persistent inventory pressure.

The recent industry self-regulation meeting and new cost references have provided partial support to market sentiment and prices. However, with rising production and the risk of potential inventory pileup, short-term price upside remains constrained, and temporary declines are possible. Wafer prices are expected to stay firm next week. If planned production cuts in November proceed, the market could rebalance supply and demand, supporting continued price stability.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:   

•    Average price: RMB 0.32/W (flat)  

•    Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W (flat)

210N:   

•    Average price: RMB 0.31/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W (up)

210RN:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (down)  

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W (down)

Cell prices vary across formats amid differing supply–demand dynamics:

•    183N remains stable, supported by sustained demand from India.

•    210N benefits from China’s ground-mounted demand, with average prices likely to edge up to RMB 0.32/W next week.

•    210RN continues to experience oversupply. Only Tier-1 makers maintain delivery prices at RMB 0.29/W this week, while most Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers transact around RMB 0.285/W. Price quotes may slip further.

Recent rises in silver prices have once again lifted production costs for cell makers. However, given the uncertainty of module makers’ demand for outsourced cells, the cell segment remains squeezed between upstream and downstream pressures.

At current price levels, cells continue to be sold below full production cost. In the near term, market trend will hinge on the rollout of China’s anti–price war policy details and the extent to which end-market demand can sustain higher cell prices.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    P-type cell demand primarily stems from India.

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

•    The average export price for 183N cells from China stays at USD 0.042/W this week.

•    Recent news of India’s anti-dumping policies and varios policies are likely to boost pre-year-end stocking demand for 183N cells, which may drive another round of price increases in the near term.

•    For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

Following the National Day holiday, the overall market has remained largely unchanged. Module prices have held firm due to rising costs of cells, raw materials, and BOMs, with some products even showing slight price increases.

The current ground-mounted market has been primarily driven by deliveries under previously signed contracts, while visibility for new orders has remained limited.

Prices for distributed projects have held steady, supported by pre-holiday stocking activity, C&I, and self-consumption project deliveries. A small number of high-priced orders are still being placed.

TOPCon module prices in China:

•    Utility-scale projects: RMB 0.64–0.70/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.66–0.70/W

It is noteworthy that several recent centralized procurement tenders have specified demand for 700 W+ high-power modules. Although these products currently represent only a small portion of the total procurement, they have driven a clear price hike for 210N modules, with some quotes reaching RMB 0.72–0.75/W.

Outlook for Q4:

By November–December, as demand weakens further, market attention is expected to shift toward Q1 2026 order signing and production scheduling, with some manufacturers likely to begin adjusting production plans in advance to align with next year’s demand cycle.

Demand has started to ease in October, and some manufacturers have reported lower-than-expected order volumes. Module prices are expected to remain broadly stable in the second half of October as China’s domestic demand gradually declines.

By November and December, as demand drops further, market focus is expected to shift toward 1Q26 order signing and production planning, with some manufacturers likely to begin adjusting production schedules in advance to align with demand cycle for 2026.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific mostly come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.15/W in India. Price competition has emerged due to oversupply.

•    Europe:

Driven by rising Chinese supply chain costs and raw material price fluctuations, overall delivery prices have inched up to USD 0.084–0.088/W. Export tax rebate considerations have become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    U.S.:

Prices for Southeast Asia–to–U.S. projects remain at USD 0.27–0.28/W., while distributed projects are delivering near USD 0.30/W or higher. Overall, market pricing remains divergent and volatile.

Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly impacted module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.