Upstream price hikes ripple down; module prices remain stagnant

Polysilicon

This week, polysilicon makers have quoted products at RMB 50–55/kg, with spot orders reaching RMB 50/kg. New quotes for granular polysilicon have been around RMB 48/kg. Some manufacturers have yet to issue formal quotes, waiting to monitor market price trends. A gap between quotes and actual transaction prices still exists.

Policy news has lifted market sentiment since August 21. Polysilicon buyers have gradually started accepting higher prices, with small-scale restocking activities. Even ingot makers holding inventories have made small purchases to hedge against further price hikes.

Transaction prices have raised this week: 

•    Mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 45–47/kg 

•    Recycled mono-grade polysilicon: RMB 46–50/kg 

•    Granular polysilicon: RMB 45-47/kg

A small number of ingot makers have accepted prices at RMB 50/kg, though deals above RMB 50/kg are mainly linked to futures contracts or special-grade polysilicon.

The sharp price increase has prompted some makers to consider resuming or expanding production. Despite ongoing maintenance at a few facilities, August polysilicon output is set to reach 125,000-130,000 MT.

However, incentivized by recent high prices, most makers are maintaining their original schedules for September. With newly commissioned capacity ramping up, total output may exceed that of August.

Nevertheless, the rise in production will also push up inventory pressure. Manufacturers must carefully balance production plans, as aggressive expansion amid weak demand may elevate market risks once again.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). Overall prices in August come in at USD 18/kg.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have edged higher this week, primarily driven by rising upstream polysilicon costs and the continued impacts of the “anti-price war” initiative. Producers have accordingly pushed quotes upward.

Mainstream transaction prices have risen by about RMB 0.05/piece across all major formats:

•    183N: RMB 1.25/piece

•    210RN: RMB 1.40/piece

•    210N: RMB 1.60/piece

By format, 183N wafers have achieved price gains on the back of shrinking output and tighter supply-demand dynamics. 210RN ones have faced slower order intake due to rising supply and buyer caution, though transactions have gradually picked up as more manufacturers aligned with the new pricings. Meanwhile, 210N ones have seen steady price hikes, underpinned by demand.

Notably, while prices have increased this week, manufacturers are generally pursuing uniform quotes and market stabilization, with narrowed pricing discrepancies amid steady trading sentiment. Given that the “anti-price war” initiative has yet to be implemented, current price hikes remain modest.

In the near term, prices are expected to remain stable with a gradual upward bias.

Looking ahead, two key factors will shape the market trend:

•    Upstream costs – Continued increases in polysilicon prices would drive wafer costs and quotes further upward.

•    Downstream demand – Should prices rise beyond end-market tolerance, the viability of higher transaction prices will come under pressure.

Moreover, if upstream manufacturers maintain high utilization rates without cutting production in September, mounting inventory could emerge as a major market risk.
 

Cell prices in China

This week, n-type cell prices have shown divergent trends.

183N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.295/W (up) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.29-0.3/W 

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.29/W (up) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W

210RN:

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W

Following wafer price hikes last week, most quotes for n-type cells have risen by RMB 0.005/W. Prices for 183N and 210N have been adjusted upward amid balanced supply-demand conditions. However, given the higher output of 210RN, its adjusted price of RMB 0.29/W sees limited transactions before this Wednesday, with no large-scale deals concluded.

Notably, some major module makers reduced or suspended cell purchases last week, underscoring weak end-market demand. With manufacturers awaiting clarity on anti-price war policies, cells, caught between wafers and modules, hold limited bargaining power, making short-term price swings unlikely.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week, with further price increases likely amid increasing wafer prices.

Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:

The average export price for 183N cells from China remains flat at USD 0.039/W this week. Rising wafer prices in China have supported cell prices, but with non-China demand likely to weaken and premiums narrowing, prices remain temporarily stable.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

This week, module shipments are mainly for earlier orders, with new deals concentrated in ground-mounted and self-consumption projects. The second round of centralized procurement projects by previously awarded bidders is set to commence, providing demand growth amid recent weakness. However, bidding prices are trending higher, with many surpassing RMB 0.75/W.

Actual execution prices may differ due to add-ons or contract terms. Thus, market assessment is recommended to focus on trading prices rather than announced bids. A recent project awarded above market prices has faced execution challenges. Returns falling short of projections may raise concerns over future demand.

Prices for ground-mounted projects are mostly at RMB 0.68-0.69/W, with a mix of previous and new orders keeping the overall average price stable. Some projects and urgent orders have accepted prices above RMB 0.70/W, but the transaction volume of such cases only accounts for 5-10% at certain manufacturers, making it difficult to affect the average price.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.63-0.72/W

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.65-0.685/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.63-0.68/W

•    Distributed spot market: Only a small number of transactions are concluded above RMB 0.70/W.

PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.70–0.83/W

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.70–0.78/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.70–0.75/W

N-TBC:

•    Prices have remained flat this week.

•    Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.73–0.80/W

•    Note: Price quotes exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India. It is worth noting that some Indian manufacturers have been buying cells from Southeast Asia.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Notably, manufacturers have recently started factoring potential changes to export tax rebates into contracts, resulting in minor spot price increases, with some orders delivering above USD 0.085/W. Pricing also varies depending on power bins.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Impacted by U.S. reciprocal tariffs and compliance requirements under the OBBBA, suppliers and project developers are still negotiating adjustments. Some projects have reportedly been put on hold, and domestic spot distribution prices have seen a slight rebound. Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.28/W. Given trade risks, price quotes for locally-made modules are also trending upward.