Price divergence across the chain; module prices stall on weak demand

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes this week have held steady at last week’s level. Tier-1 suppliers have aligned quotes at RMB 55/kg, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 have quoted at RMB 52/kg. New orders for granular polysilicon have been quoted at about RMB 50/kg, lifting overall quotes to above RMB 50/kg.

Polysilicon buyers remain cautious amid rising quotes. Ingot makers have made small purchases in early September, but transaction volumes have since slowed. Nevertheless, transaction prices have edged slightly higher this week, with limited deals reported at RMB 49-52/kg. Major suppliers have already concluded transactions above RMB 50/kg.

It is worth noting that market risks in China and abroad are mounting. Many downstream buyers are seeking non-Xinjiang-made polysilicon, which could lead to price divergence in the coming weeks.

The gap between futures and spot prices has tempered market expectations, leading most buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach and restrict procurement to small-scale, just-in-need volumes. With negative news weighing on market sentiment and downstream segments unable to afford high costs, polysilicon prices may remain largely flat in the near term.

Although earlier reports suggested production cuts or output control for September, high prices have encouraged most producers to maintain original production schedules. Coupled with the ramp-up of new capacity, overall supply volumes continue to exceed downstream demand. As a result, inventory pressure is set to rise further in September. Manufacturers will need to cautiously schedule output, as aggressive production amid weak demand could amplify risks going forward.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
 

Wafer

As projected last week, wafer prices have edged slightly higher this week, with a new round of quotes already concluded.

By wafer format:

•    183N: RMB 1.30/piece (up from last week’s RMB 1.25/piece)

•    210N: Driven by demand from China, prices have climbed to RMB 1.65/piece, extending strong momentum.

•    210RN: Given oversupply and sluggish demand, some were still traded at RMB 1.37/piece as of September 4, though mainstream prices have stabilized at RMB 1.40/piece this week. If the supply–demand imbalance persists, its price trend may stagnate or even decline.

Supply–demand dynamics:

•    Many wafer makers have raised production schedules for September, with total output rising sharply from August.

•    Current inventories have increased slightly but remain within a reasonable range, while shipments have stayed stable.

•    Notably, the output share of 210RN wafers has dropped in September compared with August, driven by both supply-demand mismatches and growing 183N demand, indicating producers have begun adjusting product structure to mitigate price pressure.

Outlook:

Upstream polysilicon prices remain elevated, providing firm cost support for wafers. Meanwhile, robust demand has pushed up cell prices, further reinforcing wafer price momentum. Accordingly, wafer prices are set to hold steady next week, with possible further increases.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N (up): 

•    Average price: RMB 0.31/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.3-0.32/W 

210N (up): 

•    Average price: RMB 0.3/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.295-0.3/W

210RN (flat):

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W 

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W

Cell prices mostly hold steady from last week. 

•    183N: Prices have risen due to increased demand from India.

•    210RN: Oversupply and high production share continue to push inventories higher, keeping the average price flat at RMB 0.285/W.

•    210N: Demand holds steady in China and prices start rising amid tight supply-demand balance.

Concerns over insufficient end-user demand in September persist, with greater clarity on anti-price war policies remaining awaited. Short-term price trends will hinge on the outcome of price negotiations in various segments. With pressure across the supply chain, sharp fluctuations in cell prices remain unlikely.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    P-type cell demand in India continues to provide support, stabilizing prices this week. 

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD: 

The average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.040/W this week.

It is worth noting that recent stockpiling in the Indian market has emerged due to anticipated price increases under China’s anti-price war policies, coupled with India’s lowered goods tax rates and eased ALMM restrictions on imported cells for certain projects. These factors have fueled strong demand for 183N cells, with prices expected to rise further and potentially sustain the upward trend beyond October.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

In the first week of September, demand becomes slightly weaker compared with August, with most module deliveries still tied to earlier orders. Some projects have resorted to low-priced bidding and inventory clearance, but mainstream prices remain steady amid rising costs.

Module prices this week:

TOPCon glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60-0.72/W 

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.65-0.68/W 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.63-0.68/W

•    Earlier price-adjusted projects: RMB 0.60–0.63/W

•    Distributed spot market: Only a few transactions are concluded above RMT 0.70/W, but the transaction volume of such cases has declined, accounting for 5-10% at certain manufacturers. Major clients are receiving orders at RMB 0.65–0.68/W.

PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.69-0.83/W (down)

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.69-0.75/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.78-0.83/W

N-TBC:

•    Prices have slipped this week.

•    Recent transaction prices: RMB 0.71-0.8/W

•    Note: Price quotes exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Prices for residential BC modules have dipped slightly to USD 0.16-0.17/W.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Current trading prices are approaching USD 0.27–0.28/W. During U.S. exhibitions, prices continued to diverge and appear fragmented. Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly influenced module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Many contracts now include clearer risk allocation and liability terms.