Wafer price hikes partially realized while cell quotes yet to catch up

Polysilicon

Polysilicon price quotes this week have held steady. Tier-1 suppliers have aligned quotes at RMB 55/kg, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 have quoted at RMB 52/kg. New orders for granular polysilicon have been quoted at about RMB 51/kg, lifting overall quotes to above RMB 50/kg.

This week, trades have yet to see bulk procurement. Still, rising quotes have driven increased downstream OEM procurement alongside ingot purchases. With anti-price war policies taking effect, market sentiment remains optimistic on price support. Adjustments to prior orders and trading prices have lifted the overall average price slightly. Major suppliers have concluded transactions at RMB 50-55/kg, with deliveries under earlier contracts still ongoing.

While the average price for non-China polysilicon holds at USD 18-19/kg, U.S.-bound suppliers have been adjusting production structures in response to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

On September 16, China’s National Institute of Standardization released a draft for comments on the “Norm of Energy Consumption per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium)”, underscoring that energy consumption benchmarks will serve as a key threshold for future capacity allocation. The draft proposes tighter comprehensive energy consumption standards:

Trichlorosilane (TCS) polysilicon

•    Level 1 (advanced technology target): 5.0 kgce/kg

•    Level 2 (new or expanded project threshold): 5.5 kgce/kg

•    Level 3 (requirement for existing production): 6.4 kgce/kg

FBR (fluidized bed reactor) polysilicon using silane

•    Level 1: 3.6 kgce/kg

•    Level 2: 4.0 kgce/kg

•    Level 3: 5.0 kgce/kg

With implementation scheduled 12 months after the official release, companies will have sufficient time to adjust production, limiting the immediate impact on the market.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continue to rise, with quotes for all formats increasing by RMB 0.05/piece since the weekend. However, actual transactions show structural differences, particularly as the market’s acceptance of new 210RN quotes remains limited.

Prices by wafer format:

•    183N: RMB 1.30–1.35/piece. While some deliveries were still made at RMB 1.30/piece last Thursday, transactions have shifted to RMB 1.35/piece since Monday following new weekend quotations, reflecting strong demand support.

•    210N: Quotes have risen to RMB 1.70/piece. Supported by Chinese demand, the price trend remains steady.

•    210RN: Some manufacturers have raised quotes to RMB 1.45/piece, but cell makers’ ample inventories have curbed acceptance. The market continues to prioritize price stability, with limited room for further increases. Transactions this week remain concentrated at RMB 1.40/piece, with the viability of RMB 1.45/piece still uncertain.

With ingot OEM on the rise, manufacturers are adjusting production structures. 183mm wafers remain stronger in trading activity than other formats. Its output share has increased this month, supporting prices in the short term.

Next week, wafer prices are expected to stay stable with limited upside under the influence of upstream costs and downstream demand, while the actual transaction momentum for 210RN warrants close attention.
 

Cell prices in China

N-type cell prices this week:

183N:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.31/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.31-0.32/W (up)  

210RN:  

•    Average price: RMB 0.285/W (flat)

•    Price range: RMB 0.285-0.29/W (up)

210N: 

•    Average price: RMB 0.3/W (flat) 

•    Price range: RMB 0.3-0.31/W (up)

Driven by recent wafer price hikes, cell makers have raised their quotes this week, with 183N, 210RN, and 210N trending upwards to RMB 0.32/W, RMB 0.29/W, and RMB 0.31/W, respectively. However, as manufacturers adjusted quotes at different times and some major module makers remain cautious, these higher prices have only translated into limited transactions as of September 17. As a result, the increases are not yet reflected in average prices, with price negotiations between the cell and module segments still ongoing.
 

Cell prices in non-China markets

P-type cell prices in USD:

•    The average export price for 182P cells from China stays at USD 0.039/W this week.

•    P-type cell demand in India continues to provide support, stabilizing prices this week. 

•    Higher-end pricing refers to Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon, directly exported to the U.S., with recent prices at USD 0.08–0.09/W, averaging USD 0.08/W.

N-type cell prices in USD:  

The average export price for 183N cells from China has risen to USD 0.041/W this week, continuing last week’s upward trend.

It is worth noting that recent stockpiling in the Indian market has emerged due to anticipated price increases under China’s anti-price war policies, coupled with India’s lowered goods tax rates and eased ALMM restrictions on imported cells for some projects. These factors have fueled strong demand for 183N cells, with prices expected to rise further and potentially sustain the upward trend beyond October.

For higher-end Southeast Asian cells using non-China-made polysilicon and exported to the U.S., recent prices land at USD 0.10–0.12/W, with the average staying at USD 0.11/W this week.
 

Module prices in China

Most module deliveries this week are tied to previous orders. Sluggish demand has prompted some projects to adopt aggressive pricing strategies such as low-price bidding and inventory clearance, resulting in a few sales at lower levels.

For bulk orders, however, sharply rising costs have led most suppliers to hold prices steady, with major manufacturers reducing low-priced deliveries for ground-mounted projects. As earlier price-adjusted orders delivered in recent months are nearing completion, ground-mounted project deliveries in late September are likely to concentrate around RMB 0.67–0.68/W, with fewer shipments at lower prices.

Module prices this week: 

TOPCon glass-glass: 

•    RMB 0.60-0.72/W  

•    Bulk delivery: RMB 0.67-0.68/W  

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.64-0.68/W 

•    Earlier price-adjusted projects: RMB 0.62–0.63/W 

•    Distributed spot market: Only a few transactions are concluded above RMT 0.70/W, but the transaction volume of such cases has fallen, accounting for 5-10% at certain manufacturers. Major clients are receiving orders at RMB 0.66–0.68/W.

PERC glass-glass:

•    RMB 0.60–0.70/W

HJT:

•    RMB 0.69-0.83/W (flat) 

•    Ground-mounted projects: RMB 0.69-0.75/W

•    Distributed projects: RMB 0.78-0.83/W

N-TBC:

•    RMB 0.71-0.80/W (flat)

•    Note: Price quotes exclude distributor and inventory-based sales.
 

Module prices in non-China markets

Module prices by region:

•    Asia-Pacific:

1.    Prices for Chinese exports to the Asia-Pacific come in at USD 0.085-0.090/W.

2.    Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia.

3.    Non-DCR (domestic content requirement) module prices are at USD 0.14-0.16/W in India.

•    Europe:

Overall delivery prices in Europe remain at USD 0.083–0.085/W. Export tax rebate considerations have now become a mandatory clause in contracts, with current agreements signed based on a 9% rebate rate.

•    Latin America:

Mainstream prices are at USD 0.08-0.09/W. Brazil sees prices both at USD 0.08/W and USD 0.09/W.

•    Middle East:

Prices mostly hold at USD 0.085-0.090/W for bulk procurement, while previous high-priced locked-in orders are still being delivered at USD 0.10–0.11/W.

•    The U.S.:

Current trading prices hold at USD 0.27–0.28/W. During U.S. exhibitions, prices continued to diverge and appear fragmented. Although Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) have not directly influenced module prices, they are reshaping supply chain structures and traceability compliance. Notably, most contracts have included clearer risk allocation and liability terms.